Automated driving systems, control logic, and methods execute maneuver criticality analysis to provide intelligent vehicle operation in transient driving conditions. A method for controlling an automated driving operation includes a vehicle controller receiving path plan data with location, destination, and predicted path data for a vehicle. From the received path plan data, the controller predicts an upcoming maneuver for driving the vehicle between start and goal lane segments. The vehicle controller determines a predicted route with lane segments connecting the start and goal lane segments, and segment maneuvers for moving the vehicle between the start, goal, and route lane segments. A cost value is calculated for each segment maneuver; the controller determines if a cost values exceeds a corresponding criticality value. If so, the controller commands a resident vehicle subsystem to execute a control operation associated with taking the predicted route.