An environmental conditioning system for conditioning the environment of an occupiable region includes environmental conditioning hardware and a controller. The controller includes an occupancy module configured to receive ingress data associated with occupants entering the occupiable region for each of a first plurality of ingress iterations of a first prescribed time period. The controller further performs a first ingress rolling mean of the ingress data over the first plurality of ingress iterations, and compares at least the first ingress rolling mean to a first occupancy threshold. If the first occupancy threshold is exceeded by the first ingress rolling mean, the controller outputs a start command to the environmental conditioning hardware.