Various health management systems may benefit from tools for appropriate identification of target patients. For example, various population health management approaches may benefit from systems and methods for optimal health assessment and optimal preventative program development. A method can include obtaining a simple risk measure score for a patient. The method can also include obtaining an evidence-based score for the patient. The method can further include comparing the simple risk measure score to the evidence-based score. The method can additionally include identifying the patient as a target for preventative medicine based on a discrepancy revealed by the comparison.