In one embodiment, a processor of a vehicle predicts a state of the vehicle using a behavioral model. The model is configured to predict the state based in part on one or more state variables that are available from one or more sub-systems of the vehicle and indicative of one or more physical characteristics of the vehicle. The processor computes a representation of a difference between the predicted state of the vehicle and a measured state of the vehicle indicated by one or more state variables available from the one or more sub-systems of the vehicle. The processor detects a malicious intrusion of the vehicle based on the computed representation of the difference between the predicted and measured states of the vehicle exceeding a defined threshold. The processor initiates performance of a mitigation action for the detected intrusion, in response to detecting the malicious intrusion of the vehicle.