Systems and methods to select targeted advertising for display are disclosed. Example systems disclosed herein are to access an address of a media device associated with a household, access purchase data reported from a logging device that logs product purchase activity at the household, determine a consumer segment associated with the household, determine an opportunity metric for a first product to be purchased by the household based on the purchase data reported from the logging device and purchase behavior associated with the consumer segment, select a first advertisement associated with the first product to deliver to the media device based on the opportunity metric and a saturation metric associated with the household for the first advertisement, the saturation metric based on detection of codes embedded in prior instances of the first advertisement delivered to the media device, and transmit the first advertisement to the address of the media device.