Disclosed herein are computer-implemented methods and systems for forecasting security ratings for an entity. The methods and systems can include generating a plurality of simulated instantiations of a security scenario for the entity, in which the security scenario characterized by a plurality of security events associated with at least one event type. The methods and systems can further include determining a security rating for each instantiation of the plurality of instantiations; and generating a forecast cone based on the determined security ratings for the plurality of instantiations. In some examples, for each event type of the at least one event type, the methods and systems can include determining a rate, duration, and/or temporal placement of the security events associated with the event type over a forecasting period.