A request from a user to view a video content item may be received, the requesting user being associated with a set of preferences and a context. A group of similar users may be identified based at least one of: one or more preferences in the set of preferences or the context. A first promotional video item corresponding to the video content item may be identified. A first watch time value for a first portion of the group of similar users may be determined based on an amount of time during a period of time that users of the first portion of the group have viewed the video content item after being provided the first promotional video item. A second watch time value for a second portion of the group of similar users may be determined based on an amount of time during the period of time that the users of the second portion of the group have viewed the video content item, the first promotional video item not provided to the users of the second portion of the group. A watch time difference between the first watch time value and the second watch time value may be determined. An activity rate associated with the first promotional video item that was provided to the group of similar users may be determined. A determination of whether to provide the first promotional video item to the user with the video content item may be based on the watch time difference, the activity rate, or the context of the user.