A memory sub-system to track charge loss in memory cells and shifts of voltages optimized to read the memory cells. For example, a memory device can measure signal and noise characteristics of a group of memory cells to calculate an optimized read voltage of the group of memory cells. The memory sub-system having the memory device can determine an amount of charge loss in the group of memory cells, using at least the signal and noise characteristics, the optimized read voltage, and/or the bit error rate of data read using the optimized read voltage. The memory sub-system tracks changes in optimized read voltages of memory cells in the memory device based on the amount of charge loss.