Systems, computer-implemented methods and/or computer program products that facilitate predicting personalized risks based on intrinsic factors and extrinsic factors are provided. In one example, a computer-implemented method comprises: collecting, by a system operatively coupled to a processor, intrinsic factors and extrinsic factors associated with infectious diseases; generating, by the system, a probabilistic model based on the intrinsic factors and extrinsic factors, wherein the model incorporates node characteristics into infection probability; and refining, by the system, the model through concurrently learning respective node thresholds and hidden infection network structure of the model.