Autonomous vehicle interactive decision making may include identifying two or more traffic participants and gaps between the traffic participants, selecting a gap and identifying a traffic participant based on a coarse probability of a successful merge between the autonomous vehicle and a corresponding traffic participant, generating an intention prediction associated with the identified traffic participant based on vehicle dynamics of the identified traffic participant, predicted behavior of the identified traffic participant in the absence of the autonomous vehicle, and predicted behavior of the identified traffic participant in the presence of the autonomous vehicle making a maneuver creating an interaction between the identified traffic participant and the autonomous vehicle, generating an intention prediction associated with the autonomous vehicle, calculating an updated probability of a successful interaction between the identified traffic participant and the autonomous vehicle based on the intention prediction associated with the identified traffic participant and the autonomous vehicle.