A space controller includes processors and non-transitory computer-readable media storing instructions that, when executed by the processors, cause the processors to perform operations. The operations include obtaining a power consumption model that defines a change in power consumption of HVAC equipment that operate to provide heating or cooling to a space as a function of a change in temperature setpoint for the space and model parameters that represent thermal properties of the space. The operations include estimating values of the model parameters based on training data including values of the power consumption of the HVAC equipment, the temperature setpoint for the space, and outdoor air temperature at multiple times within a training period. The operations include using the power consumption model and the values of the model parameters to predict a change in the power consumption of the HVAC equipment expected to result from a change in the temperature setpoint.