Methods and systems to predict a supply chain performance are described. A system receives supply chain data for delivery of a product. The supply chain data includes input signals comprising operational plans and observed supply chain operational metrics. The input signals include a delivery date of the product. The system automatically generating predicted supply chain operational metrics across including a value at risk that is predicted for the product. The system automatically infers causal factors that impact the predicted supply chain operational metrics including impacting the value at risk that is predicted for the product. The system automatically generates action recommendations for the supply chain. An action recommendation includes a first predicted value impact and a sequence of actions impacting the product the delivery date of the product and the value at risk that is predicted for the product.