Disclosed herein are systems, computer-readable media, and methods related to modeling on multivariate time series data overlaid with event data. In particular, some examples involve selecting one or more historical time series data arrays similar to a recent time series data array and filtering the similar historical time series data arrays based on event data. Some examples can also involve training a localized temporal forecasting model using the filtered historical time series data arrays. Some examples can include building and/or training the localized temporal forecasting model at or near a time that a forecast is needed.