A method predicts a derivable event in a logistic network. The method includes generating a Bayesian network describing a structure of at least a part of a logistic network. A query is received for the derivable event that depends on a combination of base events in the logistic network. The Bayesian network is instantiated for a plurality of points in time. A prediction of the derivable event is deduced from the instantiated Bayesian network by use of complex event processing.