An image forming apparatus includes an image forming unit, a toner detection sensor, a storage unit, and a control unit. The image forming unit includes an image carrier, a charging device, an exposure device, and a developing device. The toner detection sensor detects toner in the developing device. The control unit predicts transition of the toner deterioration degree in the developing device using the toner consumption amount and the cumulative operating time stored in the storage unit, and a predetermined toner deterioration model. The control unit is capable of measuring the toner deterioration degree based on amplitude of an output value of the toner detection sensor, and corrects the toner deterioration model, if the measured value of the toner deterioration degree is apart from the predicted value of the toner deterioration degree by a predetermined value or more.