A method for determining an estimated duration before a technical incident in a computing infrastructure, executed by a computing device. The computing device including a data processing module, a storage module that stores in memory at least one correlation base between performance indicators, wherein the correlation base includes values of duration before becoming anomalous between correlated performance indicators, and a collection module. The method includes receiving performance indicator values, identifying anomalous performance indicators, identifying first and other at-risk indicators. The method includes determining an estimated duration before a technical incident including a calculation, from the anomalous indicators and at-risk indicators, a shorter path leading to a risk of technical incident, and a calculation of an estimated duration before a technical incident. The estimated duration is calculated from the values of duration before becoming anomalous between correlated performance indicators for each of the performance indicators constituting the shortest path calculated.