Described are a system, method, and computer program product for generating a synthetic control group. The method includes receiving transaction account data and transaction data associated with transactions completed by a first set of transaction accounts with a target merchant. The method also includes generating a synthetic control group including a subset of transaction accounts sampled from the first set of transaction accounts. The method further includes determining, for each transaction account of the synthetic control group, a propensity score. The method further includes assigning an entropy balancing weight to each transaction account of the synthetic control group. The method further includes altering, based on the synthetic control group, at least one operational parameter of a computer-implemented advertisement program to be executed.