A method of identifying an incident root cause probability that includes identifying, using a monitoring system, a first incident/incident class and generating, using a change management application, a first change request and change class. The method also includes generating, from the change management application, a second change request from a second incident, and where the first and second incidents are in a set of incidents, and where the first and second change requests are in a set of changes, mapping, by a cause analysis application, the set of incidents to the set of changes to identify a root cause probability, where the probability is formed by from a Galois linkage chain between the two sets, and developing, from the cause analysis application, a root cause probability value of the first incident, and executing, using a parameter management application, a mitigation process.