Techniques are provided for adaptive resource allocation for workloads with initial condition setting. One method comprises obtaining a dataset comprising data from previous executions of a workload, wherein the data comprises a plurality of different resource allocations and parameterizations of the workload; determining an initial allocation of an amount of a resource for the workload based on a regression model characterizing a behavior of the workload, the data, a predefined service metric and a characterization of a target infrastructure; and initiating an application of the determined initial allocation of the amount of the resource for the workload. A performance of one or more of the plurality of workloads can be evaluated based on a percentage of time within a predefined error range. The regression model can be updated and/or replaced over time with new data for additional executions of the at least one workload.