Product provisioning and recommender systems and methods are described for generating product-based recommendations for geographically distributed physical stores based on mobile device movement. In various embodiments, a server aggregates mobile device movement data originating from a plurality of mobile devices geographically distributed with respect to a physical store of a geographic trade area. A provisioning application (app) executing on the server and analyzing the mobile device movement data, assigns geographic region descriptors defining a geographical consumer region for each mobile device of the plurality of mobile devices. The provisioning app generates a network store graph model based on a set of regional probabilities and a set of trade area probabilities. The provisioning app implements the network store graph model to generate, and provide to physical store operator(s), product-based recommendations for a target geographic consumer region selected from the geographical consumer region(s) and in a proximity to the geographic trade area.