A system and a method for on-line analysis of a structure of dried shredded tobacco are provided. The system includes a shredded tobacco structure on-line analysis module, a shredded tobacco filling capacity prediction model module, and an early-warning module. The shredded tobacco structure on-line analysis module includes a sample extraction unit, a sample analysis unit and a shredded tobacco filling capacity data acquisition unit. The shredded tobacco filling capacity prediction model module includes a model parameter screening unit and a model construction unit. An early-warning threshold is provided in the early-warning module, and when a deviation of a predicted shredded tobacco filling capacity from a standard value exceeds the early-warning threshold, an alarm is given. The new system is an intelligent system with functions of shredded tobacco structure analysis, shredded tobacco filling capacity prediction, and abnormality early-warning determination and analysis.