Embodiments generate a short life cycle sales curve for a short life cycle item. Embodiments generate a plurality of similar sales curves corresponding to at least one similar item that is similar to the short life cycle item. Embodiments parametrize each of the similar sales curves, including estimating, for each similar sales curve, a coefficient of innovation parameter, a coefficient of imitation parameter, and an error parameter, and determine a weight for each error parameter. Embodiments combine the coefficient of innovation parameters and the coefficient of imitation parameters using the weights, and generate the short life cycle sales curve using the combined coefficient of innovation parameters and the combined coefficient of imitation parameters.