An automated medication dosing and dispensing system includes: gesture sensors to detect physical movement of a user; computer-readable storage media with program code instructions; and at least one processor. The instructions are configurable to cause the at least one processor to perform a method that involves: detecting, based on analysis of gesture sensor readings obtained from the gesture sensors, an occurrence of a gesture-based physical behavior event; calculating an initial confidence level for the detected occurrence of the gesture-based physical behavior event; deriving a final confidence level, for the detected occurrence of the gesture-based physical behavior event, from the initial confidence level and from external information obtained from at least one source of data that is distinct from the gesture sensors; and adjusting medication dosage and/or medication dispensing parameters in response to the detected occurrence of the gesture-based physical behavior event and the final confidence level.