A method of drilling tendency estimation including receiving, at a processor, one or more directional sensor measurements from a drilling tool disposed on a drill string, processing, at the processor, the one or more directional sensor measurements to determine an actual wellbore trajectory over a defined interval, and identifying, at the processor, a set of directional disturbance parameters by optimization of the actual trajectory of the drilling tool, steering inputs, and/or a set of pre-defined directional disturbance parameters of the drilling tool.