In an embodiment, a data processing method comprises obtaining, from a calendar database associated with a particular mobile computing device, an event record specifying an event, and a date value and a time value indicating a date and time of the event; obtaining, from a user location history table accessible to a server computer, historical location data specifying a plurality of past geographical locations of the particular mobile computing device; using the server computer, determining, based upon the plurality of past geographical locations of the particular mobile computing device, a predicted location of the event; based upon the predicted location of the event, a current location of the particular mobile computing device, and mode data specifying a particular mode of transportation, calculating a route of travel between the current location and the predicted location and an estimated duration of travel; determining, based upon the date value, time value, route of travel and estimated duration of travel, a recommended time to leave to arrive at the predicted location of the event approximately on time.