A method for minimizing allocation failures in a cloud computing system without overprovisioning may include determining a predicted supply for a virtual machine series in a system unit of the cloud computing system during an upcoming time period. The predicted supply may be based on a shared available current capacity and a shared available future added capacity for the virtual machine series in the system unit. The method may also include predicting an available capacity for the virtual machine series in the system unit during the upcoming time period. The predicted available capacity may be based at least in part on a predicted demand for the virtual machine series in the system unit during the upcoming time period and the predicted supply. The method may also include taking at least one mitigation action in response to determining that the predicted demand exceeds the predicted supply during the upcoming time period.