This application provides methods and systems for automated condition-based maintenance of mechanical systems. Example systems may at least one memory coupled to one or more computer processors that are configured to receive first data from the mechanical system indicative of performance of a first component of the mechanical system, determine, using the first data, a first performance metric for the first component, determine, using the first performance metric, a probability value that a fault has occurred at the first component, and determine, using the probability value, a predicted length of time until failure of the first component.