One embodiment provides a method for predicting a next action in a conversation system that includes obtaining, by a processor, information from conversation logs and a conversation design. The processor further creates a dialog graph based on the conversation design. Weights and attributes for edges in the dialog graph are determined based on the information from the conversation logs and adding user input and external context information to an edge attributes set. An unrecognized user input is analyzed and a next action is predicted based on dialog nodes in the dialog graph and historical paths. A guiding conversation response is generated based on the predicted next action.