Managing firmware updates of an information handling system (IHS), including performing, at a first time, a calibration and configuration of a firmware update risk model, including: identifying predictor data associated with a plurality of IHS; training, based on the predictor data, the firmware update risk model, including generating a configuration policy including configuration rules, the configuration rules for performing computer-implemented actions responsive to a firmware update; receiving, at a second time, the firmware update at a particular IHS, and in response: identifying particular predictor data of the particular IHS; in response to identifying the particular predicator data of the particular IHS, i) accessing the firmware update risk model including the configuration policy, ii) identifying one or more of the configuration rules based on the identified particular predicator data, and iii) applying the one or more configuration rules to perform computer-implemented actions responsive to receiving the firmware update.