An oven appliance may include a cabinet, a heating element, temperature sensor, and controller. The heating element may be within the cabinet to heat a cooking chamber. The temperature sensor may be mounted in thermal communication with the cooking chamber. The controller may be configured to initiate a cooking operation. The cooking operation may include directing the heating element according to a predetermined holiday heating cycle during a first holiday occurrence, collecting a plurality of temperature readings from the temperature sensor during the first holiday occurrence as a first temperature group, determining, following the first holiday occurrence, a temperature deviation from a set reference temperature, the temperature deviation being based on the first temperature group, generating a modified holiday heating cycle based on the determined temperature deviation, and directing the heating element according to the modified holiday heating cycle during a second holiday occurrence following the first holiday occurrence.