In one embodiment, a device obtains performance data regarding failures of a tunnel in a network. The device generates a failure profile for the tunnel by applying machine learning to the performance data regarding the failures of the tunnel. The device determines, based on the failure profile for the tunnel, whether the tunnel exhibits failure flapping behavior. The device adjusts one or more Bidirectional Forwarding Detection (BFD) probing timers used to detect failures of the tunnel, based on the determination as to whether the tunnel exhibits failure flapping behavior.