An online connection server is configured to more accurately predict connections for a viewing member of an online connection network. The online connection server may implement a machine-learning model that uses prior interactions by the viewing member to determine those connections that are likely to lead to more substantial interactions with the viewing member. The machine-learning model may be implemented using a reinforcement learning technique, such as a Deep Q network. The online connection server may further implement a state representation module that generates a state from a graph-based embedding of the viewing member profile, where the state is used to train the machine-learning model and determine an optimal candidate to recommend as a connection for the viewing member.