Technologies for selectively streaming video based on mapping buffer data to download rates. The technologies can include sampling download rates of a video player prior to or during downloading of a first video segment to the video player. The technologies can include determining a range of download rates of the video player based at least on the sampled download rates. The technologies can include determining an amount of accumulated video data in a buffer of the video player immediately prior to or during the downloading of the first video segment. Also, the technologies can include mapping the determined amount of accumulated video data to a download rate within the determined range of download rates using a mapping function, and determining a second video segment quality for a second video segment based at least on the mapped download rate.