A method, apparatus, system, and computer program product for creating a forecasting model for payroll records. Payroll records are received for a group of employers. The payroll records comprise granular data parameters about employees of the group of employers. A forecasting model is created that aligns the payroll records to high-level employment data. Creating the forecasting model includes identifying predictor variables from the granular data parameters of the payroll records. Creating the forecasting model includes generating a set of basis functions from the predictor variables. Creating the forecasting model includes combining the set of basis functions to create the forecasting model.