Data migration based on data change rate analysis is provided. A minimum data replication duration is calculated for each respective data migration event of a set of data migration events in an existing data migration wave plan by adjusting a planned data replication duration until a data change rate per day of servers is equal to an estimated server data replication rate per day when the existing data migration wave plan is not feasible. A new data replication start date, a new data replication end date, and a new data migration cutover date is determined for each respective data migration event based on the minimum data replication duration for each respective data migration event. A new data migration wave plan is generated based on the new data replication start date, the new data replication end date, and the new data migration cutover date for each respective data migration event.