The present disclosure is directed to systems and methods for predicting risk of machine components not achieving their agreed life based on historical data. In some implementations, the predicting component risk system can obtain historical component specific time series data and component life data that correspond to a specific component of a type of machine. Using the component specific time series data and component life data, the predicting component risk system can train a time-series model. After training the model, the predicting component risk system can obtain current component specific data that includes information on the current condition and usage of the component. Using the trained time-series model, the predicting component risk system can determine a risk score for the current component specific data and notify maintenance entities of the risk. The risk score can represent the risk that the specific component does not achieve agreed life.