A method may include obtaining wellhead temperature data from a wellhead coupled to a wellbore. The method may further include obtaining production data regarding the wellhead. The method may further include obtaining water cut data from the wellhead. The method may further include calibrating a production model for the wellhead based on the production data and the wellhead temperature data to generate a calibrated production model. The method may further include determining a predicted production rate of the wellhead using the calibrated production model, the water cut data, and flowing wellhead temperature data.