The predictive overlay network architecture of the present invention improves the performance of applications distributing digital content among nodes of an underlying network such as the Internet by establishing and reconfiguring overlay network topologies over which associated content items are distributed. The present invention addresses not only frequently changing network congestion, but also interdependencies among nodes and links of prospective overlay network topologies. The present invention provides a prediction engine that monitors metrics and predicts the relay capacity of individual nodes and links (as well as demand of destination nodes) over time to reflect the extent to which the relaying of content among the nodes of an overlay network will be impacted by (current or future) underlying network congestion. The present invention further provides a topology selector that addresses node and link interdependencies while redistributing excess capacity to determine an overlay network topology that satisfies application-specific performance criteria.