Methods, systems, and non-transitory computer readable storage media are disclosed for generating action recommendations modifying physical emissions sources of an entity based on past and modeled emissions for the entity. Specifically, the disclosed system monitors emissions produced by an entity by determining a number of emissions sources corresponding to an entity and a plurality of emissions values for the emissions sources. Additionally, the disclosed system determines a plurality of constraints corresponding to the entity. The disclosed system also determines goals for the entity including target emissions values. The disclosed system utilizes a modified gradient descent model to iteratively adjust emissions values for the physical emissions sources to obtain the target emissions values according to the constraints. The disclosed system generates action recommendations for modifying the physical emissions sources utilizing the modified gradient descent model and provides the action recommendations for display within a graphical user interface.