A ticket exchange server is configured to distribute tickets to an event based on predicted attendance. The ticket exchange server accesses a set of training data describing statistics of and attendance during a historical event for a plurality of historical events. Using the training data, the ticket exchange server trains a machine-learned model, which is configured to predict a likelihood of a seat at a stadium being vacant during an event based on real-time statistics. During an event at the stadium, the ticket exchange server detects a vacant seat associated with a first ticket of a first user. The ticket exchange server determines a value of a second ticket for the vacant seat at least in part by applying the machine-learned model to real-time statistics of the event and distributes the second ticket to a second user.