Methods, systems, and media for managing online advertising campaigns based on causal conversion metrics are provided. In some embodiments, the method comprises: receiving conversion information corresponding to test group including consumers that were presented with an advertisement using an advertising channel; receiving advertisement viewability information indicative of a probability that each of the consumers viewed the advertisement; determining that a subset of the consumers did not view the advertisement based on the probability; placing the consumers into a control group and a test group based on the probability corresponding to each of the consumers; calculating a causal conversion metric based on a comparison of the conversion information corresponding to consumers of the control group and conversion information corresponding to consumers of the test group; and determining whether to place an advertisement using the advertising channel based on the causal conversion metric.