A method for insulin therapy includes obtaining a current glucose measurement value of a user from a sensing arrangement, obtaining a determination of a current amount of active insulin in the body of the user, identifying an amount of future insulin deliveries to be delivered by an infusion device, determining a homeostasis metric based at least in part on the current glucose measurement value, the current amount of active insulin in the body of the user, and the amount of future insulin deliveries, wherein determining the homeostasis metric comprises predicting a change in the current glucose measurement value based on accounting for metabolism of the current amount of active insulin and the amount of future insulin deliveries, and generating an alert based at least in part on the homeostasis metric.