The present disclosure belongs to the field of petroleum engineering, and specifically relates to a subsea Christmas tree re-prediction method integrating Kalman filter and Bayesian network. The subsea Christmas tree re-prediction method integrating Kalman filter and Bayesian network includes three steps: digital twin model establishment, degradation process re-prediction model establishment, and remaining useful life calculation model establishment. The subsea Christmas tree re-prediction system integrating Kalman filter and Bayesian network includes a subsea distribution unit information acquisition subsystem mounted on an subsea distribution unit, a subsea control module information acquisition subsystem mounted on a subsea control module, a subsea valve bank information acquisition subsystem mounted on a subsea valve bank, a wellhead mechanical module information acquisition subsystem mounted on a wellhead mechanical module, a subsea environmental information acquisition module mounted on a subsea control module, and a subsea Christmas tree digital twin subsystem mounted in an overwater control station.