Methods and systems are provided for predictive maintenance of a vehicle component. One method involves mapping a current instance of a component of a vehicle to one of plurality of degradation groups of prior lifecycles for other instances of the component based on a relationship between performance measurement data for the current instance and historical performance measurement data associated with that respective degradation group, obtaining contextual data associated with operation of the vehicle, and determining a maintenance recommendation for the current instance of the component based on the contextual data using a predictive maintenance model associated with the mapped degradation group.