Disclosed is a system comprising a memory component having a plurality of memory cells capable of being in a plurality of states, each state of the plurality of states corresponding to a value stored by the memory cell, and a processing device, operatively coupled with the memory component, to perform operations comprising: obtaining, for the plurality of memory cells, a plurality of distributions of threshold voltages, wherein each of the plurality of distributions corresponds to one of the plurality of states, classifying each of the plurality of distributions among one of a plurality of classes, generating a vector comprising a plurality of components, wherein each of the plurality of components represents the class of a respective one of the plurality of distributions, and processing, using a classifier, the generated vector to determine a likelihood that the memory component will fail within a target period of time.