Methods and systems for computing a risk metric on a network of processing nodes are disclosed. The method includes receiving a plurality of events at a plurality of processing nodes. The method further includes at a first processing node, processing on a first event and a known instance of a second event to determine whether the first event matches the known instance of the second event. The method further includes in response to determining that the first event does not match the known instance of the second event, terminating the processing without generating an output, and generating a first output event having a resulting probability computed based on a confidence value of the first event and a first probabilistic value of a first missing event, or in response to determining that the first event matches the known instance of the second event, generating the first output event having the resulting probability computed based on the confidence value of the first event.