A computer-implemented method is provided for determining an action with respect to a given portfolio of items for supply chain management. The method includes acquiring, by a hardware processor, a feature vector for supply chain delivery trends, the given portfolio, and a current investment amount. The method further includes determining, by the hardware processor, whether a current supply chain delivery situation is normal or abnormal based on the feature vector. The method also includes performing a risk-avoidance action to reduce the current investment amount and avoid potential supply chain delivery losses, responsive to a determination that the current supply chain delivery situation is abnormal. The method additionally includes performing a risk adaptive action to increase the current investment amount and incur potential supply chain delivery gains by using a distributional reinforcement learning process, responsive to a determination that the current supply chain delivery situation is normal.