Example methods and systems for ad insertion decision-making comprise: identifying an ad insertion opportunity in which an underlying advertisement is available for replacement by an addressable advertisement; determining a first expected revenue corresponding to presentation of the addressable advertisement and a first expected cost corresponding to presentation of the addressable advertisement, wherein the first expected cost is based on a current pacing of an advertisement campaign of the addressable advertisement; determining a second expected revenue corresponding to presentation of the underlying advertisement and a second expected cost corresponding to presentation of the underlying advertisement, wherein the second expected cost is based on a current pacing of an advertisement campaign of the underlying advertisement; determining an expected value of the ad insertion based on the first and second expected revenues and the first and second expected costs; and causing performance of the ad insertion based on the expected value.