Embodiments are directed to managing data correlation over a network. Role success models that correspond to roles and to success criteria may be provided. A student profile that includes skill vectors may be provided based on student information. Role success models may be employed to determine intermediate scores based on the skill vectors and the success criteria. A predictive score for the student that corresponds with a predicted performance of the student in the roles may be generated based on the one or more intermediate scores. Actions for the student may be determined based on a mismatch of the skill vectors and role skill vectors that correspond to the roles. In response to the student performing the actions: updating the one or more skill vectors based on a completion of the actions; and updating the predictive score based on the role success models and the updated skill vectors.