Stratigraphic analysis includes determining misfit values between stratigraphic vertical depth of an offset wellbore, SVDow and measured depth of a subject wellbore. A likelihood that the target measured depth is equal to or within a tolerance of stratigraphic vertical depth of the subject wellbore, SVDsw, for sequences of stratigraphic vertical depth is calculated. A probability weighted average and an uncertainty that the target measured depth for the subject wellbore, TMDsw, is equal to or within a tolerance of stratigraphic vertical depth of the subject wellbore, is calculated. A continuous probability function over a range of measured depth that the target measured depth for the subject wellbore, TMDsw, is equal to or within a tolerance of stratigraphic vertical depth of the subject wellbore, SVDsw, is calculated. The likelihood, the probability weighted average, the uncertainty, and the continuous probability function are used to make drilling decisions